ABOUT DANIEL
FINKELSTEIN
Daniel Finkelstein is executive
editor of
The Times
and author
of its weekly Fink Tank column on
football data
the
manager
AUTUMN 2011
THE BACK OFFICE
this gloomy forecast? Not according to
our old friend, the Castrol EDGE data;
this, in fact, suggests that while life
in the top fight will be tough for the
newly-promoted, instant relegation is
by no means inevitable.
Let’s have a look at this season’s
crop; Queens Park Rangers, Norwich
City and Swansea City. It’s possible
to calculate their chances using the
Castrol EDGE rankings to measure
performance. To assess what we call
‘underlying class’, we look a team’s
goals (and shots on goal) over a
two-year period, weight that data
appropriately, then simulate the season.
Te results show that in each case,
this season’s promoted teams are more
likely to stay up than they are to go
down. Tere is, however, an anomaly.
Te underlying class of the sides over
two seasons (which is usually the best
predictor of future performance) does
not correspond with the fnishing
positions of the three promoted sides.
It is Swansea City, promoted through
the play-ofs, who have the highest
chance of survival (74 per cent),
compared to Norwich City and QPR,
each of whom have a 52 per cent
chance of avoiding relegation.
How unusual is this? Well, given the
received wisdom about promotion and
relegation, it’s interesting to note how
often clubs survive their frst year. Te
percentage of title winners that survive
the frst year, historically, is 63 per cent.
Te runners-up are in almost the same
position, with 61 per cent surviving.
It’s only the play-of team that is
relegated more often than not – 63
per cent of sides that earn promotion
through the play-ofs go back to where
they came from within 12 months.
(Incidentally, don’t believe the myth
that a club’s previous experience of
competing in the top fight helps them
to stay up; the fgures show that this
makes no diference.)
Aside from relaxing because things
aren’t as bad as they seem, what else
can the newly-promoted managers
do to help themselves?
Well... I’m afraid the frst point is
blindingly obvious; they can try to
persuade their clubs to spend money.
Te powers-that-be at most promoted
clubs are so concerned that they are
going to go straight back down again
that they conserve their money. Tis
has the result of ensuring the club has
a much greater chance of relegation.
Managers should show their board
the fgures from the 2004/05 season,
which show that teams with a £10m
wage bill had a 49 per cent chance of
survival, while the chance for those
with a £20m bill shot up to 78 per
cent. Tere is only so much a manager
can do without funding and board
members need to understand this.
Te second thing to do is to spend
whatever money is available on
defenders and goalkeepers. Look at
the diference between the automatic
promotion sides which tend to stay
up and the play-of teams that tend
not to. Te big diference is in goals
conceded, not in goals scored.
So... persuade your board to loosen
the purse strings, tighten up at the
back and, who knows? You may well
be around to experience ‘that difcult
second season’. Best of luck..
JUST BEFORE EACH
new Barclays
Premier League season, the pundits
put their collective heads together
and decide that life in the top fight
is going to be very difcult for the
three newly-promoted teams.
Some external factors are
occasionally taken into consideration
in this dialogue: the fact that the
team is returning after just a single
season in the npower Championship,
perhaps, or maybe the manager’s
previous record in the top fight.
Even at this point, however, the
prognosis is usually the same... the
new boys are going to struggle and
then go straight back down again.
But does the reality match up with
DANIEL FINKELSTEIN SIFTS THROUGH THE DATA RELATING TO NEWLY-PROMOTED CLUBS AND FINDS
THAT THEIR PROSPECTS MIGHT NOT BE AS BAD AS MANY PRE-SEASON PUNDITS PREDICT
ANALYSIS
DATA ANALYSIS
PROVIDES BOOST
FOR BARCLAYS
PREMIER LEAGUE
NEW BOYS